Thursday, October 31, 2013

FRIDAY RACES Marathon, 4:45 ET Perhaps the most wide-open race of the day, as attested by the fact that none of the ten entries are above 10-1 on the ML. Ever Rider was installed as the tepid favorite, presumably based on taking the same path as 2012 winner Calidoscopio. The Argentine shipped captured the General Beligrano in June at odds of 28-1, and hasn't raced since. Not much to go on with a bunch of uneven performaces in allowance races in Argentina. I'm taking a major stand against. I much prefer Worldly, who exits a third-place finish in the September 28 Homecoming Classic at Churchill Downs, a race won by defending Breeders' Cup Classic champion Fort Larned. He hasn't won in 2013, but has been keeping some serious company, and his last three on-the-board finishes are as good as anything else offered in this race. 8YO Pool Play also exits that race a well-beaten sixth. He also hasn't seen the winner's circle since last year, but the old grinder possesses the back class to be competitive in this field. Commander is the lone returnee from the 2012 edition of this race, one I'm sure his connections would just as soon forget, beaten 44 lengths. I expect this year will be far different, especially if he could make an easy lead, a proposition that looks easier said than done, as Ever Rider and the Dale Romans-trained Suns Out Guns Out will likely have their say. London Bridge deserves a look. A 3YP, he's the baby of this field, but the connections think enough of him to ship over for his North American debut. He's 3 of 8 across the pond this year, and could be any sort. The Prediction: #10 Worldly #3 Commander #8 Pool Play ***Juvenile Turf, 5:25 ET This race has been won the last two years by the Coolmore/Aidan O'Brien/Ryan Moore connection, and that trio is back year with Giovanni Boldini, winner of 2 of 3 lifetime races in Ireland. Bred in West Virginia by the red-hot sire War Front, this one has all the looks of continuing O'Brien's streak. The same connections have Wilshire Boulevard, with Joel Rosario aboard. This one is 2 of 7 overseas, and while O'Brien won't tip his hat as to which colt he favors, both form and function suggest that Giovanni Boldini is preferred. The ML favorite is the Chad Brown-trained Bobby's Kitten, an impressive winner of the G3 Pilgrim at Belmont in October. He will be revved up to go from the start, and could prove very tough to catch. Another top contender is Godolphin's Outstrip, who also brings over an impressive overseas record, hanging with the likes of top Euro babies in Toormore and War Command. An intriguing possibility to knock off the top contenders in Poker Player. I loved this guy's furious closing run in the Bourbon S. at Keeneland in October at 23-1, and a similar performance today may land him right back in the winner's circle. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers in that race - Bashart and Bon Accord - are also here, and merit some respect. Finally, Aotearoa cannot be ignored based on nice score at Santa Anita in most recent start. He's another that will be charging home late. The Prediction #2 Giovanni Boldini #11 Poker Player #5 Bobby's Kitten ***Dirt Mile, 6:05 ET As far as I am concerned, this race is all about the closers. There are a lot of horses who want to run close to the lead, including most of the favorites. I expect the pace to fall apart, and there are horses who could close at a very nice price. I'll start with the Bob Baffert-trained Fed Biz, most recently a winner over Goldencents in the Pat O'Brien Handicap in August. He's a versatile type who's won on the lead in the past, but is likely to to go the closing route in this one. Hymn Book doesn't have a win in 2013, but has hitting the board against top-notch competition all year, and with his running style, I expect a similar performance here. Golden Ticket has never quite got back to the form that allowed him to dead with with Alpha (also here) last year, but has the talent and running style to make a splash here. Doug O'Neill's Goldencents was a well-regarded 8-1 in this year's Kentucky Derby, but after a flop there and at the Preakness, he was given some time off. Since then, he's had three starts in California, finishing second as the favorite each time. He's likely to be well-bet again today, and wouldn't be a big surprise to me. Verrazano will be the likely favorite, but I've never been a big fan. Does his best running against weaker fields, and this is not that. The Prediction: #5 Fed Biz FRIDAY'S TOP SELECTION #3 Hymn Book #12 Goldencents ***Juvenile Fillies Turf, 6:50 ET This is a race that I expect to be dominated by the Euro shippers. I do have a lot of respect for the likely favorite, My Conquestadory, but I think she was probably best suited for the dirt; additionally, she drew the painful 14 post. As such, I;m likely going to pass her over in favor of a trio of Euro shippers, none of whom I can draw much distance between. Al Thakhira is a perfect 2 for 2, and gets Ryan Moore in the irons. She will be difficult to defeat. Vorda has been knocking heads overseas with the boys, and last year's winner of this race, Flotilla, was also French-based. She's very dangerous. The last of my favored trio is Chriselliam, upset winner of the G1 Shadwell Fillies Mile. She'll probably offer a better price than the other two, but looks just as dangerous to me. As for other American entries, Chad Brown has a whopping four contenders; even then, I like the French-bred Testa Rossi best of all of them. She scored a nice win from way off the pace in her American debut, the G3 Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont earlier this month. The Prediction: #2 Al Thakhira #6 Vorda #8 Chriselliam ***Distaff, 7:35 ET This is certainly the race of the day, and likely the race of the weekend. I can't remember another Breeders' Cup only have six entries, but it's easy to see why that is the case. As the text I received from my compadre Rico Suave said, "Four special fillies. Two other damn good fillies." That's a nice summary of this race. The discussion starts with Princess of Sylmar. She's come a long way since capturing the Kentucky Oaks at odds of 38-1, and hasn't lost since. In many years, she would enter this race as a huge favorite, but this isn't just any year. Hell, she isn't even the ML favorite! --- that honor belongs to the outstanding Royal Delta, the defending champion of this race. Other than an ill-fated trip to Dubai she's done little wrong this year, although she just lose to the Princess at Belmont in September. Royal Delta may have not been able to beat Princess of Sylmar, but Close Hatches has, at Aqueduct in April. After a flop in the Oaks, she has rounded back into form with a couple of Grade 1 wins, and is going to give the big two all they can handle. So too will Beholder. This filly enjoys something of a home-court advantage, having not ventured outside of California, other than her close second in the Oaks. She was given some time off after that one, and she's won her last two with a jockey change to Gary Stevens. I love this filly, and I think she's being a tad bit ignored. That said, in order to win this race, she is likely going to have outrun Royal Delta early, and I'm not sure I see that happening. The "two other damn good fillies" are Authenticity and Street Girl. While a win by either would be considered a big upset, they both could certainly crash the board. The Prediction: #3 Close Hatches #4 Royal Delta #6 Princess of Sylmar Please check back later Thursday or Friday for a preview of Saturday's races